NBA games

ORL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
112–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23243035112
ATL32323429127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home ATL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 22 11 8
Tristan da Silva 25 20 4 2
Franz Wagner S 34 18 5 2
Jalen Suggs S 20 12 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 11 5 1
Desmond Bane S 23 9 3 2
Anthony Black 26 7 4 3
Noah Penda 2 4 2 0
Goga Bitadze 13 4 2 2
Jett Howard 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 21 4 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 20 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 35 18 6 6
Jalen Johnson S 33 17 6 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 15 2 3
Onyeka Okongwu 27 14 7 3
Vit Krejci 11 7 1 1
Luke Kennard 20 6 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye 18 5 3 0
Keaton Wallace 11 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
12%
3 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
7 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
8 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
22%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.0 8.4 4.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.8 8.7 3.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.0 5.2 3.8
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 18.1 3.6 3.6
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 17.7 6.7 2.9
6 Desmond Bane ORL 14.8 4.3 3.6
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.7 8.2 2.2
8 Anthony Black ORL 12.9 3.5 3.0
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.9 6.9 2.0
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.0 3.1 1.7
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.0 5.6 3.5
12 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.8 3.6 4.6
13 Luke Kennard ATL 9.3 2.5 2.2
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.2 3.1 1.5
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.6 6.1 1.0
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.4 1.1
17 Vit Krejci ATL 5.9 2.1 0.9
18 Asa Newell ATL 5.4 3.4 0.6
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.7 1.3 3.0
20 Tyus Jones ORL 4.5 1.5 1.7
21 Noah Penda ORL 4.3 2.5 0.8
22 Jase Richardson ORL 4.3 1.5 1.4
23 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.4 1.0
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 3.1 0.5
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.7 1.0 0.3
26 N'Faly Dante ATL 2.4 4.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.