NBA games

MIL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
100–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL29252620100
TOR39343223128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home TOR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 24 22 8 3
Kyle Kuzma 27 18 3 0
Cole Anthony 24 12 4 4
Ryan Rollins S 28 11 0 5
Myles Turner S 23 10 8 3
AJ Green S 17 9 1 1
Mark Sears 5 8 0 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 21 6 2 4
Gary Harris 8 2 1 0
Bobby Portis 20 2 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 28 23 3 6
RJ Barrett S 31 23 8 4
Immanuel Quickley S 26 15 6 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 15 7 1
Gradey Dick 22 14 1 0
Brandon Ingram S 31 13 8 4
Jakob Poeltl S 20 8 9 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 11 8 3 0
Jamal Shead 17 5 2 8
Jamison Battle 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
7%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
11%
Layup
66%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.8 12.6 6.2
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.1 6.2 4.2
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.9 4.8 3.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.0 8.1 5.0
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.0 3.8 5.1
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.6 3.8 6.1
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 13.1 2.4 2.5
8 AJ Green MIL 12.0 3.2 1.9
9 Myles Turner MIL 11.3 5.4 1.9
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.1 5.2 1.8
11 Cole Anthony MIL 10.4 3.5 4.7
12 Bobby Portis MIL 9.2 4.8 1.4
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.9 3.8 1.8
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.1 6.5 1.6
15 Gradey Dick TOR 8.0 2.7 0.8
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.9 3.7 2.1
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.9 2.4 1.1
18 Jamal Shead TOR 6.4 1.8 4.6
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.7 2.2 1.8
20 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 1.7 0.7
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.1 3.4 0.9
22 Amir Coffey MIL 3.8 1.7 0.9
23 Jericho Sims MIL 2.8 2.1 0.8
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.6 2.3 0.7
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.2 0.7 1.0
26 Mark Sears MIL 2.1 0.6 0.4
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.0 0.3
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.