NBA games

MIA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
120–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32343717120
LAC30412424119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (LAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 30 25 10 4
Norman Powell S 28 21 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 32 17 2 2
Kel'el Ware 18 16 5 0
Simone Fontecchio 17 11 1 0
Davion Mitchell S 34 8 5 9
Pelle Larsson S 24 7 1 3
Nikola Jovic 18 7 4 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 6 6 5
Dru Smith 14 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 29 7 8
Kawhi Leonard S 37 27 4 4
John Collins 25 12 3 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 12 3 0
Bradley Beal S 20 12 1 2
Kris Dunn 23 10 3 4
Ivica Zubac S 33 9 18 3
Brook Lopez 15 5 1 0
Chris Paul 14 3 4 4
Nicolas Batum 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 3-foot layup (Norman Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
18%
2 Norman Powell MIA
10%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
6 Bradley Beal LAC
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.3 4.7 3.4
2 James Harden LAC 20.1 4.5 9.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.7 7.8 3.1
4 Norman Powell MIA 18.6 4.0 3.0
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.1 5.0 4.1
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.7 8.8 2.6
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 13.2 4.3 2.0
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.2 8.2 1.4
9 John Collins LAC 11.8 5.4 1.4
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.8 2.3 5.2
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.1 3.1 1.4
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.7 2.5 1.1
13 Bradley Beal LAC 8.5 2.2 1.4
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.4 3.6 2.5
15 Brook Lopez LAC 7.8 3.4 0.9
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.0 2.2 1.8
17 Kris Dunn LAC 5.9 2.4 1.4
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.8 1.8 2.4
19 Chris Paul LAC 5.4 2.1 4.2
20 Jahmir Young MIA 4.7 1.0 1.4
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.3 2.4 1.5
22 Cam Christie LAC 4.0 0.9 0.6
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.8 2.8 0.8
24 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.7 3.0 0.7
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.8 2.4 0.6
26 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 2.6 1.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.