NBA games

LAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
123–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL24283833123
POR33203329115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home POR
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 31 29 10 2
Rui Hachimura S 38 28 4 1
Nick Smith Jr. 27 25 1 6
Jake LaRavia S 36 11 5 6
Marcus Smart S 32 9 2 5
Dalton Knecht S 23 8 4 1
Bronny James 19 5 1 6
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 4 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 13 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 36 33 6 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 23 7 2
Jerami Grant 31 18 3 4
Toumani Camara S 34 14 7 2
Jrue Holiday S 36 8 3 6
Kris Murray 23 6 0 2
Robert Williams III 15 6 3 2
Sidy Cissoko 14 5 2 2
Donovan Clingan S 18 2 4 0
Caleb Love 7 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
13%
2 Jrue Holiday POR
12%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Toumani Camara POR
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Caleb Love POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
32%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 21.1 5.9 4.2
2 Jerami Grant POR 19.5 4.2 1.9
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.6 4.6 2.3
4 Jrue Holiday POR 18.1 4.5 7.5
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.4 4.1 2.2
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 14.3 9.1 1.8
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.4 4.6 2.8
8 Toumani Camara POR 12.0 4.0 3.1
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.4 2.2 2.5
10 Donovan Clingan POR 9.6 9.2 1.7
11 Caleb Love POR 8.0 2.1 1.6
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.5 2.7 1.4
13 Kris Murray POR 7.3 3.5 1.2
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.7 5.6 1.6
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.1 5.6 1.5
16 Bronny James LAL 4.9 2.5 1.5
17 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.8 1.4 1.1
18 Yang Hansen POR 3.9 1.8 0.7
19 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.2 0.7
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.3 1.2 1.5
21 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 2.0 0.7
22 Christian Koloko LAL 2.3 2.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.