NBA games

SAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
124–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30333031124
DEN39333226130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DEN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 37 26 12 6
DeMar DeRozan S 36 19 3 0
Dennis Schroder S 35 18 4 9
Zach LaVine S 37 15 5 4
Keon Ellis 25 15 3 0
Domantas Sabonis S 37 13 17 5
Drew Eubanks 11 10 2 0
Nique Clifford 19 8 1 3
Devin Carter 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 34 7 14
Christian Braun S 31 21 4 3
Aaron Gordon S 30 20 7 1
Jamal Murray S 32 15 7 7
Bruce Brown 22 13 6 3
Cameron Johnson S 30 10 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 12 8 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 5 2 2
Julian Strawther 7 4 0 0
Peyton Watson 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 Dylan Cardwell SAC
8%
8 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
9 Christian Braun DEN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 4.2 5.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 22.2 3.5 3.1
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.5 11.1 8.8
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.3 5.1 2.4
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.5 4.4 3.9
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.4 10.6 3.8
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.7 3.7 4.7
8 Russell Westbrook SAC 13.0 4.6 4.7
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.7 3.7 2.7
10 Nique Clifford SAC 10.8 4.0 3.4
11 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.9 3.1 1.6
12 Peyton Watson DEN 8.6 3.8 2.0
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 8.2 1.8 1.4
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.7 4.6 1.5
15 Keon Ellis SAC 6.5 1.7 1.0
16 Bruce Brown DEN 5.8 3.1 1.6
17 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.6 3.2 0.8
18 Julian Strawther DEN 4.4 2.2 0.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.3 1.2 1.1
20 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.0 3.0 0.8
21 Dario Saric SAC 3.8 1.4 0.4
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.3 3.4 0.5
23 Devin Carter SAC 2.9 1.1 0.9
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 2.8 0.6 0.3
25 Isaac Jones SAC 2.5 1.0 0.3
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.4 0.6
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.2 0.4
28 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.