NBA games

DET @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32262531114
MEM25232632106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 33 5 8
Isaiah Stewart S 34 26 14 4
Ronald Holland II 20 14 2 3
Jalen Duren S 34 14 9 3
Duncan Robinson S 40 11 4 1
Ausar Thompson S 27 9 4 1
Caris LeVert 20 4 1 2
Javonte Green 21 3 3 1
Paul Reed 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 21 4 1
Ja Morant S 35 18 5 10
Cedric Coward 31 17 6 2
Jock Landale S 30 13 5 1
Cam Spencer 15 13 2 3
Santi Aldama 23 11 5 1
Vince Williams Jr. 15 4 2 2
Jaylen Wells S 21 4 6 3
Charles Bassey 15 3 10 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Ja Morant MEM
15%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Jock Landale MEM
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
7%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
14%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.6 5.5 9.0
2 Ja Morant MEM 23.6 4.0 6.6
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.7 5.4 2.0
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.7 9.9 1.9
5 Cedric Coward MEM 14.5 4.2 2.6
6 Ausar Thompson DET 12.7 6.9 3.3
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 11.9 3.0 3.6
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.6 3.4 1.6
9 Jock Landale MEM 11.3 5.1 1.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.7 6.7 2.2
11 Duncan Robinson DET 10.4 3.4 1.6
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.6 3.4 2.3
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.5 1.9 2.6
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.4 5.1 1.2
15 Javon Small MEM 8.1 1.9 4.4
16 Cam Spencer MEM 7.9 2.1 3.1
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.0 1.1 2.6
18 Caris LeVert DET 5.7 1.7 1.6
19 Javonte Green DET 5.4 2.6 1.0
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.2 2.8 1.0
21 Chaz Lanier DET 4.6 1.1 0.8
22 Paul Reed DET 4.4 4.1 0.8
23 Tolu Smith DET 4.4 4.5 0.5
24 John Konchar MEM 4.4 2.9 1.0
25 GG Jackson MEM 3.8 1.5 0.4
26 PJ Hall MEM 3.7 2.5 0.4
27 Bobi Klintman DET 3.5 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.