NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
102–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28272324102
HOU24342329110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 36 29 12 3
Max Christie S 33 17 4 6
Daniel Gafford S 25 14 4 1
Cooper Flagg S 34 12 5 2
D'Angelo Russell 29 10 4 12
Naji Marshall 22 9 2 2
Klay Thompson S 18 5 3 3
Moussa Cisse 14 4 2 0
Brandon Williams 8 2 2 0
Dwight Powell 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 39 27 5 4
Alperen Sengun S 40 26 11 6
Kevin Durant S 38 21 6 5
Tari Eason S 30 15 4 2
Aaron Holiday 10 6 1 1
Reed Sheppard 17 5 5 3
Steven Adams 23 4 9 1
Clint Capela 11 4 8 0
Josh Okogie S 25 2 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Max Christie makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
17%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
5 Klay Thompson DAL
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
8 Josh Okogie HOU
8%
9 Max Christie DAL
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 23.5 5.4 2.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.8 8.2 7.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 18.9 6.4 5.3
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 5.2 1.6
5 P.J. Washington DAL 14.1 6.2 3.2
6 Cooper Flagg DAL 13.7 5.5 3.1
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.6 3.7 3.5
8 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.1 3.1 4.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.6 4.9 2.1
10 Josh Okogie HOU 10.6 3.0 1.5
11 Max Christie DAL 10.1 2.2 2.1
12 Naji Marshall DAL 8.4 3.0 2.0
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.2 2.2 2.2
14 Klay Thompson DAL 8.1 2.5 1.3
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.9 8.4 1.6
16 Brandon Williams DAL 6.6 1.7 1.1
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.6 2.9 0.7
18 Clint Capela HOU 5.4 4.5 0.6
19 Dwight Powell DAL 5.3 3.6 1.2
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.3 1.2 0.7
21 Kevon Harris HOU 5.1 2.6 0.5
22 Ryan Nembhard DAL 3.9 1.1 2.7
23 Caleb Martin DAL 3.2 1.4 0.8
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.6 2.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.