NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
102–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30242424102
NY22354121119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 9 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 29 19 8 7
Corey Kispert 15 15 0 4
Kyshawn George S 30 15 5 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 15 7 2
Tre Johnson 21 10 4 1
Marvin Bagley III 14 6 7 0
CJ McCollum S 22 5 1 2
Malaki Branham 4 5 1 0
Tristan Vukcevic 4 4 0 2
Justin Champagnie S 17 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 33 13 5
OG Anunoby S 32 16 6 2
Jalen Brunson S 32 16 1 9
Jordan Clarkson 21 15 1 2
Josh Hart 26 12 10 5
Landry Shamet S 25 11 5 0
Mikal Bridges S 29 10 2 4
Miles McBride 14 3 3 3
Tyler Kolek 4 2 0 0
Guerschon Yabusele 14 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
22%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
14%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
14%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
13%
6 OG Anunoby NY
11%
7 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
8 Tre Johnson WSH
0%
9 Miles McBride NY
0%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.3 4.1 5.5
2 Kyshawn George WSH 19.8 7.0 3.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.2 11.4 2.9
4 Alex Sarr WSH 17.8 8.8 3.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.8 5.2 4.4
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.5 5.2 3.0
7 CJ McCollum WSH 16.1 4.0 3.4
8 Tre Johnson WSH 10.8 3.8 1.9
9 Miles McBride NY 10.7 3.2 2.7
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.0 2.2 1.8
11 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.9 2.5 1.0
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.8 4.6 1.6
13 Josh Hart NY 7.6 5.6 2.9
14 Bub Carrington WSH 7.4 3.0 3.0
15 Corey Kispert WSH 6.9 2.8 1.6
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.4 1.9 1.1
17 Tyler Kolek NY 5.8 1.9 1.9
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.8 1.9 0.8
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.7 2.2 1.0
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.6 3.2 1.0
21 Will Riley WSH 4.2 1.5 0.9
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.6 2.3 0.8
23 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.5 2.7 0.5
24 Trey Jemison III NY 3.5 2.6 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 3.5 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.5 0.5
27 AJ Johnson WSH 2.3 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.