NBA games

UTAH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21153831105
BOS25212631103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home BOS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 38 31 5 4
Lauri Markkanen S 37 20 9 2
Kyle Filipowski 19 13 8 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 11 11 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 29 9 6 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 16 7 3 6
Kevin Love 17 5 7 3
Ace Bailey 18 4 2 0
Elijah Harkless 21 3 1 2
Taylor Hendricks S 14 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 36 2 4
Payton Pritchard S 35 18 5 3
Anfernee Simons 26 15 1 2
Derrick White S 33 10 5 6
Neemias Queta S 26 9 8 1
Chris Boucher 7 5 1 0
Sam Hauser 28 4 2 1
Luka Garza 11 2 2 1
Josh Minott S 15 2 6 2
Hugo Gonzalez 8 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 5-foot layup (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
5 Derrick White BOS
11%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
7%
8 Josh Minott BOS
7%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.9 6.2 3.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.9 4.5 4.8
3 Keyonte George UTAH 20.4 4.1 7.2
4 Derrick White BOS 19.1 4.6 5.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.4 4.2 5.8
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.8 3.1 2.5
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.7 3.0 1.4
8 Josh Minott BOS 10.4 6.2 1.7
9 Sam Hauser BOS 9.8 3.0 1.6
10 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.3 7.4 2.7
11 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 8.6 3.0 3.3
12 Ace Bailey UTAH 8.4 3.5 1.5
13 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.2 4.3 1.3
14 Neemias Queta BOS 8.2 7.7 1.4
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.8 2.5 1.8
16 Luka Garza BOS 6.8 4.4 1.2
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.3 3.5 1.8
18 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.0 3.1 1.7
19 Chris Boucher BOS 5.8 3.8 0.8
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.6 2.7 1.1
21 Cody Williams UTAH 5.4 1.9 0.8
22 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.2 2.1 3.1
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.2 3.1 1.4
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.5 1.3 0.7
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.4 3.1 1.2
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.5 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.