NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
117–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31252833117
IND22312438115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 33 13 5
Kyle Kuzma 16 15 5 0
AJ Green S 29 13 1 3
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 11 2 2
Cole Anthony 23 11 4 4
Ryan Rollins S 28 10 5 7
Myles Turner S 32 9 7 1
Bobby Portis 16 8 2 1
Taurean Prince 21 6 3 0
Jericho Sims 5 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 38 32 5 8
Isaiah Jackson S 29 21 10 1
Jarace Walker S 38 18 8 5
Aaron Nesmith S 34 17 7 1
Quenton Jackson S 20 7 2 4
Ben Sheppard 20 5 1 2
Tony Bradley 7 4 3 0
Johnny Furphy 13 3 3 0
Taelon Peter 11 3 1 1
RayJ Dennis 8 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
37%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
4 Isaiah Jackson IND
7%
5 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
6 AJ Green MIL
6%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
8 Jarace Walker IND
6%
9 Myles Turner MIL
6%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
8%
Layup
75%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 12.5 6.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 7.0 4.9
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.8 3.6 4.3
4 Jarace Walker IND 13.2 5.7 4.0
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.6 3.9 1.5
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.8 2.1 2.3
7 Quenton Jackson IND 11.0 3.3 3.2
8 AJ Green MIL 10.8 3.0 1.5
9 Myles Turner MIL 10.4 5.1 1.8
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 10.1 5.0 1.8
11 Cole Anthony MIL 10.1 3.2 4.4
12 RayJ Dennis IND 8.9 2.7 3.7
13 Bobby Portis MIL 8.6 4.7 1.2
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.4 5.3 1.9
15 Taurean Prince MIL 6.2 2.0 1.1
16 Johnny Furphy IND 6.2 2.5 0.9
17 Taelon Peter IND 5.8 2.5 1.7
18 Jay Huff IND 5.3 2.9 1.0
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.2 3.2 0.9
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.0 4.1 0.9
21 Tony Bradley IND 4.0 3.5 0.6
22 Amir Coffey MIL 3.5 1.7 0.7
23 Mark Sears MIL 2.0 0.6 0.3
24 Gary Harris MIL 1.9 0.7 0.9
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.0 0.2
26 Jericho Sims MIL 1.7 1.5 0.4
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.