NBA games

MIN @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
125109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28352834125
BKN28312921109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home BKN
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 25 9 5
Jaden McDaniels S 29 22 3 3
Naz Reid 24 21 3 2
Julius Randle S 34 19 11 10
Rudy Gobert S 34 15 12 1
Mike Conley S 24 9 3 7
Rob Dillingham 20 7 3 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 3 1 1
Jaylen Clark 20 2 5 2
Leonard Miller 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 25 2 3
Nic Claxton S 30 19 8 7
Noah Clowney S 32 15 6 1
Ziaire Williams 23 14 2 0
Tyrese Martin S 22 12 3 2
Jalen Wilson 16 7 1 1
Terance Mann S 28 7 4 5
Ben Saraf 4 5 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 3 7 0
Egor Demin 21 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Terance Mann BKN
9%
7 Ben Saraf BKN
8%
8 Tyrese Martin BKN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 25.5 6.3 4.9
2 Cam Thomas BKN 21.1 2.8 3.9
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.6 4.6 2.0
4 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 7.5 2.8
5 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.1 3.1 3.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 11.0 4.5 1.5
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.9 8.3 1.9
8 Terance Mann BKN 10.3 3.5 1.9
9 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.8 1.8 5.2
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 2.6 1.0
11 Egor Demin BKN 8.2 3.2 2.1
12 Johnny Juzang MIN 7.7 2.7 0.8
13 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.5 3.0 2.5
14 Danny Wolf BKN 7.3 2.7 3.4
15 Mike Conley MIN 7.1 2.5 3.5
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.1 4.8 1.8
17 Leonard Miller MIN 7.0 3.2 1.1
18 Noah Clowney BKN 6.7 3.1 1.4
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.3 3.0 1.7
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.1 1.5 0.9
21 Ben Saraf BKN 5.7 1.7 3.7
22 Joan Beringer MIN 5.5 4.0 0.7
23 Bones Hyland MIN 5.5 2.1 2.0
24 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.3 2.0 1.0
25 Nolan Traore BKN 3.9 0.8 1.5
26 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.