NBA games

MIA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
120–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA36273522120
LAL43342528130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 31 8 4
Bam Adebayo S 36 17 8 5
Pelle Larsson S 26 17 5 6
Andrew Wiggins S 37 15 9 1
Nikola Jovic 28 9 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 19 9 4 0
Davion Mitchell S 32 8 0 8
Dru Smith 16 7 1 3
Kel'el Ware S 12 7 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 29 11 10
Austin Reaves S 38 26 4 11
Jake LaRavia 35 25 8 3
Rui Hachimura S 31 15 6 2
Jaxson Hayes S 32 15 5 1
Marcus Smart S 27 11 3 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 4 4 0
Dalton Knecht 12 3 0 0
Bronny James 18 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
12%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 32.9 9.7 8.4
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.1 5.0 7.1
3 Norman Powell MIA 19.7 4.1 3.1
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.4 7.4 2.9
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.3 3.9 2.0
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.9 4.7 3.8
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.6 9.5 1.6
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 14.5 9.3 1.8
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 12.7 3.6 2.1
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.2 3.9 2.9
11 Marcus Smart LAL 10.2 2.2 2.3
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.9 2.4 5.1
13 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.7 3.0 1.6
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.1 3.2 1.6
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.5 3.9 2.7
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.0 5.7 2.0
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.1 1.8 1.6
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 5.5 1.8
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.4 1.8 2.2
20 Jahmir Young MIA 5.1 1.1 1.5
21 Myron Gardner MIA 4.8 3.2 0.7
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.8 2.5 1.7
23 Bronny James LAL 4.7 2.0 1.4
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.4 2.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.