NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
118–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA24282640118
PHX31393228130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 34 26 7 5
Keldon Johnson 24 19 3 2
Harrison Barnes S 27 13 4 2
Dylan Harper 11 12 1 0
Carter Bryant 10 10 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 29 9 4 1
Riley Minix 5 9 1 0
Victor Wembanyama S 34 9 9 2
Devin Vassell S 32 4 3 2
Jordan McLaughlin 19 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 28 2 13
Ryan Dunn S 27 17 5 1
Grayson Allen S 34 17 3 3
Collin Gillespie 22 15 2 4
Royce O'Neale S 30 11 6 4
Jordan Goodwin 20 11 3 2
Nick Richards 11 10 3 2
Mark Williams S 25 7 7 2
Koby Brea 4 4 0 1
Oso Ighodaro 14 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 17-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
14%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
21%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.0 4.4 6.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.1 12.0 3.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.8 5.4 6.1
4 Grayson Allen PHX 15.4 3.7 4.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.2 4.7 2.8
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.6 3.7 4.5
7 Keldon Johnson SA 11.7 4.5 1.3
8 Mark Williams PHX 11.5 9.0 1.0
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.3 4.4 3.3
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.0 3.6 4.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 9.6 4.1 1.7
12 Harrison Barnes SA 8.3 2.3 2.3
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.3 5.8 1.6
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.7 2.4 1.8
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 3.6 1.4
16 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.1 2.9 0.7
17 Nick Richards PHX 4.5 3.3 0.6
18 Carter Bryant SA 4.4 1.8 0.7
19 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.1 2.3 0.9
20 David Jones Garcia SA 4.0 1.9 1.4
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.5 1.7 0.5
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.0 1.1
23 Harrison Ingram SA 2.8 1.9 0.4
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 2.0 0.4
25 Riley Minix SA 1.9 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.