NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24362927116
NY34343723128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 38 23 11 12
Nikola Vucevic S 32 17 14 4
Tre Jones S 34 15 2 5
Matas Buzelis S 31 14 8 0
Isaac Okoro S 22 14 1 0
Jalen Smith 16 12 5 0
Patrick Williams 26 11 2 3
Kevin Huerter 21 7 3 2
Dalen Terry 1 3 0 0
Julian Phillips 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 32 31 5 3
OG Anunoby S 35 21 2 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 20 15 5
Jordan Clarkson 18 15 0 2
Josh Hart 26 14 9 3
Mikal Bridges S 35 10 5 9
Landry Shamet 18 9 1 1
Miles McBride 23 8 4 3
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 0 0
Tyler Kolek 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes driving layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 OG Anunoby NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
9 Tre Jones CHI
7%
10 Pacome Dadiet NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
54%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.0 4.0 5.3
2 Josh Giddey CHI 20.1 7.5 7.0
3 Mikal Bridges NY 17.5 5.1 3.6
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.9 4.4 1.6
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.2 9.9 2.4
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.1 5.5 2.7
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.8 10.5 3.6
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.6 3.6 2.5
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.2 3.9 2.9
10 Tre Jones CHI 11.5 3.7 5.4
11 Miles McBride NY 11.1 2.9 2.4
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.3 3.4 2.5
13 Jevon Carter CHI 8.3 1.6 1.5
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.1 2.1 1.6
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 6.3 2.5 1.5
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.2 4.6 1.1
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.9 1.6 0.9
18 Tyler Kolek NY 5.7 1.7 1.8
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 8.8 0.8
20 Josh Hart NY 5.2 4.8 2.6
21 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.5 3.2 0.9
22 Julian Phillips CHI 4.1 1.6 0.5
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.8 1.9 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.8 1.9 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 3.2 0.6
26 Dalen Terry CHI 2.7 2.0 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.