NBA games

MEM @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM23242433104
TOR26273133117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home TOR
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 20 9 3
Santi Aldama 28 15 4 2
Jock Landale S 23 14 6 2
Vince Williams Jr. 21 14 3 3
Cedric Coward 29 12 5 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 12 0 2
Jaylen Wells S 26 7 5 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 12 6 2 0
Cam Spencer S 26 4 4 4
John Konchar 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 27 6 6
Brandon Ingram S 33 26 7 4
Scottie Barnes S 32 19 12 8
Collin Murray-Boyles S 31 15 9 5
Jamal Shead 16 9 0 5
Immanuel Quickley S 32 9 4 3
Gradey Dick 20 8 4 0
Ochai Agbaji 16 4 2 0
Jamison Battle 2 0 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Jock Landale MEM
8%
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
13%
Layup
62%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 24.4 4.5 6.9
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.0 5.8 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.3 7.4 5.2
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.7 4.4 3.8
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.2 5.4 2.0
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.5 3.6 6.5
7 Cedric Coward MEM 14.8 4.6 2.3
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.1 3.4 2.0
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 12.5 3.4 4.0
10 Santi Aldama MEM 11.2 7.3 2.5
11 Jock Landale MEM 10.3 5.3 1.5
12 Javon Small MEM 9.1 2.1 5.0
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.9 4.0 2.5
14 Cam Spencer MEM 8.3 2.2 3.2
15 Gradey Dick TOR 8.3 2.6 1.0
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.1 3.1 1.5
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.7 2.1 2.6
18 Jamal Shead TOR 6.7 2.2 4.9
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 2.4 2.1
20 Jamison Battle TOR 5.9 1.7 0.8
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.6 3.5 1.0
22 Chucky Hepburn TOR 5.4 0.8 2.2
23 John Konchar MEM 5.0 3.6 1.0
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.5 2.5 0.9
25 GG Jackson MEM 4.5 1.8 0.5
26 PJ Hall MEM 4.1 2.6 0.4
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 2.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.