NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL22302433109
CLE31192839117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 23 13 5
Dyson Daniels S 36 18 4 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 16 3 5
Luke Kennard 32 15 2 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 15 12 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 8 2 5
Onyeka Okongwu 26 7 5 2
Mouhamed Gueye 8 4 3 0
Vit Krejci 17 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 37 2 5
De'Andre Hunter S 31 19 7 3
Jaylon Tyson S 25 18 3 2
Evan Mobley S 35 14 8 5
Dean Wade 25 11 6 3
Lonzo Ball 27 8 6 3
Tyrese Proctor 11 4 0 2
Craig Porter Jr. 21 4 7 3
Larry Nance Jr. S 25 2 4 4
Thomas Bryant 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 1-foot dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Lonzo Ball CLE
7%
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
56%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.2 3.9 4.8
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.9 8.2 4.5
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.2 8.4 4.4
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.7 6.5 3.0
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.6 5.0 3.1
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 17.9 3.7 3.5
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.8 7.8 2.0
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.3 3.4 1.5
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.4 3.7 2.2
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 10.3 5.9 3.5
11 Luke Kennard ATL 8.5 2.6 2.2
12 Dean Wade CLE 7.4 3.9 1.6
13 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.4 3.6 4.8
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.4 3.7 2.3
15 Jacob Toppin ATL 6.6 2.1 1.4
16 Asa Newell ATL 6.4 3.9 0.9
17 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 6.3 4.0 1.5
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 6.3 1.8 1.8
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.7 1.3
20 Vit Krejci ATL 5.2 1.9 0.6
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.0 2.2 0.9
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.8 1.5 0.6
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.4 1.7 0.6
24 Luke Travers CLE 4.0 2.4 0.9
25 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.4 4.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.