NBA games

UTAH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
103–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25233817103
CHA39323322126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 9 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home CHA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 29 7 3
Keyonte George S 33 25 2 7
Taylor Hendricks S 25 14 7 1
Brice Sensabaugh 9 7 1 0
Ace Bailey 19 6 0 1
Kyle Anderson 12 5 0 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 19 4 2 2
Kyle Filipowski 16 4 1 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 29 3 2 2
Kevin Love 14 3 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 33 29 4 6
Kon Knueppel S 35 24 6 5
Moussa Diabate 22 17 12 0
Sion James S 29 15 5 3
Tre Mann 22 13 4 0
Collin Sexton S 29 10 4 12
KJ Simpson 17 7 4 4
Pat Connaughton 14 6 1 0
Liam McNeeley 9 3 1 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 22 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
25%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
13%
3 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
12%
4 Collin Sexton CHA
11%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
11%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
0%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 26.7 5.8 3.3
2 Keyonte George UTAH 21.2 3.9 7.9
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.9 6.9 3.3
4 Collin Sexton CHA 18.4 3.0 5.6
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 13.4 4.2 2.7
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 12.6 3.1 1.6
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.9 7.5 1.3
8 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.7 7.1 1.2
9 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.3 7.1 3.0
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.3 3.7 1.7
11 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 9.3 3.0 3.9
12 Tre Mann CHA 8.8 2.9 3.0
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.5 2.4 2.1
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.2 4.1 1.4
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.7 3.3 1.9
16 Sion James CHA 6.5 2.7 1.4
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.4 2.7 1.1
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.2 1.8 1.0
19 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.8 4.7 1.3
20 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.5 2.2 1.8
21 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.2 2.6 4.3
22 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.0 1.3 0.8
23 KJ Simpson CHA 3.7 0.7 1.1
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.9 1.1 0.7
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.7 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.