NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO22303024106
OKC39363329137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 9 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 20 9 6
Trey Murphy III S 32 19 5 2
Jeremiah Fears S 26 16 4 4
Herbert Jones S 24 12 1 3
Jordan Poole 24 11 1 3
Yves Missi S 22 7 6 0
Karlo Matkovic 7 4 2 0
Derik Queen 7 4 2 0
Kevon Looney 16 3 3 2
Micah Peavy 7 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 30 2 7
Aaron Wiggins S 26 15 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 14 14 8
Isaiah Joe 27 13 5 1
Cason Wallace S 26 13 0 1
Jaylin Williams S 23 12 3 4
Branden Carlson 20 11 5 1
Ajay Mitchell 30 10 5 8
Alex Caruso 12 8 2 0
Chris Youngblood 7 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Cason Wallace OKC
10%
6 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
9%
9 Yves Missi NO
9%
10 Jordan Poole NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.1 5.3 6.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.3 6.7 5.0
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.5 3.9 3.4
4 Jordan Poole NO 17.9 2.8 3.5
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.5 4.0 3.8
6 Trey Murphy III NO 14.3 5.7 2.8
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.0 4.6 3.3
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.1 9.2 2.8
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.4 4.3 4.2
10 Saddiq Bey NO 9.7 3.8 1.7
11 Herbert Jones NO 9.6 3.7 1.9
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 3.5 1.5
13 Yves Missi NO 8.4 7.4 1.3
14 Ousmane Dieng OKC 7.9 3.8 2.3
15 Derik Queen NO 7.6 5.6 0.8
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.5 4.4 1.9
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.1 2.0 0.8
18 Chris Youngblood OKC 7.1 2.0 1.2
19 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 2.1 1.8
20 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 5.5 3.6 1.1
21 Branden Carlson OKC 5.0 2.6 0.8
22 Jose Alvarado NO 4.5 2.0 1.3
23 Micah Peavy NO 4.3 2.1 1.0
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.4 2.3 0.6
25 Bryce McGowens NO 2.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.