NBA games

DAL @ DET

NBA Arena CDMX ·Final
110–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL30313217110
DET27322835122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (DET) / 9 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DET
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell 30 31 7 3
Cooper Flagg S 34 16 8 4
Max Christie S 33 13 6 5
Brandon Williams 17 12 0 0
Klay Thompson S 20 11 3 1
Naji Marshall 23 7 2 0
Daniel Gafford S 17 7 4 3
P.J. Washington S 36 6 5 5
Dwight Powell 19 5 6 1
Caleb Martin 12 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 29 33 10 2
Cade Cunningham S 37 21 6 18
Duncan Robinson S 34 18 6 1
Ausar Thompson S 28 15 7 1
Tobias Harris S 36 11 6 1
Isaiah Stewart 25 10 4 1
Javonte Green 14 7 2 1
Caris LeVert 18 5 1 2
Ronald Holland II 18 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Tobias Harris DET
14%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
6 Klay Thompson DAL
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
10 Dwight Powell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
51%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
12%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.9 5.4 7.9
2 Tobias Harris DET 14.9 5.6 2.8
3 Jalen Duren DET 14.8 9.5 1.6
4 P.J. Washington DAL 14.7 6.4 2.9
5 Cooper Flagg DAL 13.7 5.6 2.9
6 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 7.1 3.1
7 Ronald Holland II DET 9.8 3.2 2.3
8 Max Christie DAL 9.4 1.9 1.8
9 Duncan Robinson DET 9.3 3.0 1.5
10 D'Angelo Russell DAL 9.1 2.6 4.4
11 Naji Marshall DAL 7.9 3.1 1.9
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.8 5.0 1.0
13 Klay Thompson DAL 7.6 2.4 1.2
14 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.2 1.4 2.7
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.9 1.4 0.9
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 3.4 1.0
17 Caris LeVert DET 5.0 1.6 1.4
18 Chaz Lanier DET 5.0 1.3 0.9
19 Paul Reed DET 4.9 4.3 1.0
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.8 1.9 1.0
21 Javonte Green DET 4.6 2.3 0.8
22 Ryan Nembhard DAL 4.1 1.2 2.7
23 Bobi Klintman DET 3.4 2.2 0.7
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.8 1.0 0.7
25 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.5 2.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.