NBA games

HOU @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
128–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU37293131128
BOS24242429101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 8 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home BOS
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 30 26 4 1
Amen Thompson S 32 17 9 8
Alperen Sengun S 31 16 10 9
Reed Sheppard 17 12 0 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 12 6 0
Josh Okogie S 21 12 0 2
Tari Eason 20 12 6 0
Jeff Green 8 6 0 0
JD Davison 8 5 0 1
Steven Adams 14 4 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Baylor Scheierman 23 17 5 1
Payton Pritchard S 26 14 1 4
Jaylen Brown S 22 12 2 5
Jordan Walsh 19 10 4 1
Josh Minott S 19 10 6 3
Neemias Queta S 15 9 4 1
Hugo Gonzalez 17 7 1 1
Sam Hauser 17 6 2 2
Derrick White S 19 5 2 2
Chris Boucher 13 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Josh Minott BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.2 4.6 4.3
2 Kevin Durant HOU 22.9 5.5 2.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.4 8.0 7.5
4 Derrick White BOS 19.2 4.5 5.4
5 Amen Thompson HOU 18.2 5.5 4.8
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.3 4.3 5.9
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.9 3.0 2.4
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.7 4.9 1.6
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.5 4.3 3.3
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.8 4.7 2.3
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 2.8 1.5
12 Josh Okogie HOU 10.0 3.1 1.4
13 Josh Minott BOS 9.8 5.8 1.4
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.7 2.2 1.9
15 Luka Garza BOS 7.7 4.0 1.0
16 Neemias Queta BOS 7.5 7.2 1.3
17 JD Davison HOU 7.4 2.1 2.3
18 Steven Adams HOU 7.1 8.8 1.4
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.0 2.5 0.9
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.9 3.0 1.1
21 Chris Boucher BOS 4.6 3.4 0.5
22 Clint Capela HOU 4.4 3.5 0.5
23 Jeff Green HOU 4.3 2.9 0.5
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.1 2.5 1.4
25 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.9 0.7 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.8 0.8 0.6
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.6 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.