NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32432822125
WSH3521191994

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 26 28 11 4
Franz Wagner S 31 25 6 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 16 12 0
Goga Bitadze 20 15 6 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 8 6 0
Anthony Black 25 8 2 5
Tyus Jones 15 6 2 1
Jalen Suggs S 19 6 2 5
Desmond Bane S 20 5 0 5
Noah Penda 7 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 24 17 3 1
CJ McCollum S 22 13 5 1
Alex Sarr S 28 10 8 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 27 10 2 4
Marvin Bagley III 15 8 3 3
Cam Whitmore 16 8 2 0
Tre Johnson 25 7 3 0
Bub Carrington 22 7 4 5
Khris Middleton S 20 6 3 2
Justin Champagnie 5 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyshawn George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Kyshawn George makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
8%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.7 8.7 3.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 22.1 5.1 3.7
3 Kyshawn George WSH 20.9 7.1 4.2
4 Alex Sarr WSH 19.1 9.0 3.4
5 CJ McCollum WSH 17.3 3.9 3.5
6 Desmond Bane ORL 16.4 4.7 3.6
7 Anthony Black ORL 13.1 3.4 3.1
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.8 7.7 2.3
9 Khris Middleton WSH 12.8 5.2 2.9
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.1 3.9 4.5
11 Tre Johnson WSH 12.0 3.9 2.0
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.1 3.3 1.7
13 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.3 2.7 1.2
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.2 4.8 1.6
15 Corey Kispert WSH 7.8 3.4 1.7
16 Bub Carrington WSH 7.6 3.0 2.8
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 5.9 1.2
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.3 2.2 0.9
19 Jase Richardson ORL 5.1 1.6 1.7
20 Jett Howard ORL 5.0 1.6 1.1
21 Will Riley WSH 5.0 1.6 1.0
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.9 2.5 0.8
23 Tyus Jones ORL 4.6 1.6 1.9
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 3.5 0.6
25 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.0 2.9 0.6
26 AJ Johnson WSH 2.6 1.2 0.6
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.