GS @ IND
NBA
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
·Final
109–114
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 32 | 26 | 30 | 21 | 109 |
| IND | 28 | 25 | 29 | 32 | 114 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 9 (IND) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS
away
home
IND
57%
43%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry S | 29 | 24 | 0 | 2 |
| Jimmy Butler III S | 34 | 20 | 6 | 7 |
| Jonathan Kuminga S | 32 | 17 | 5 | 2 |
| Brandin Podziemski S | 35 | 16 | 4 | 3 |
| Quinten Post | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Draymond Green S | 30 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| Gui Santos | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Al Horford | 15 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Buddy Hield | 15 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Moses Moody | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Aaron Nesmith ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jimmy Butler III
GS
15%
2
Pascal Siakam
IND
13%
3
Aaron Nesmith
IND
10%
4
Stephen Curry
GS
10%
5
Isaiah Jackson
IND
9%
6
Quenton Jackson
IND
9%
7
Jonathan Kuminga
GS
9%
8
Draymond Green
GS
8%
9
Jarace Walker
IND
8%
10
Quinten Post
GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Curry | GS | 24.1 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Pascal Siakam | IND | 23.2 | 6.9 | 4.9 |
| 3 | Jimmy Butler III | GS | 21.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| 4 | Jonathan Kuminga | GS | 15.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| 5 | Jarace Walker | IND | 14.1 | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| 6 | Brandin Podziemski | GS | 11.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Aaron Nesmith | IND | 11.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 8 | RayJ Dennis | IND | 9.8 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Draymond Green | GS | 9.4 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| 10 | Moses Moody | GS | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 11 | Ben Sheppard | IND | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 |
| 12 | Quenton Jackson | IND | 8.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 13 | Buddy Hield | GS | 8.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 14 | Will Richard | GS | 7.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15 | Taelon Peter | IND | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 16 | Quinten Post | GS | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 17 | Al Horford | GS | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Jay Huff | IND | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 19 | Pat Spencer | GS | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 20 | Isaiah Jackson | IND | 5.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | IND | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Johnny Furphy | IND | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 23 | Trayce Jackson-Davis | GS | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 24 | Gary Payton II | GS | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 25 | Tony Bradley | IND | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 26 | Gui Santos | GS | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.