NBA games

MIN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
122–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25253636122
CHA31251831105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 32 30 7 4
Naz Reid 22 18 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 18 3 4
Jaden McDaniels S 32 14 4 6
Rudy Gobert S 35 14 15 5
Mike Conley S 29 10 3 6
Jaylen Clark 19 6 1 0
Rob Dillingham 16 4 0 4
Johnny Juzang 1 3 0 0
Bones Hyland 10 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 30 8 4
LaMelo Ball S 33 18 7 8
Tre Mann 23 16 1 5
Moussa Diabate 19 11 9 1
Collin Sexton S 20 9 2 2
Sion James 27 8 2 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 29 6 6 0
Kon Knueppel S 31 5 8 2
Tidjane Salaun 11 2 1 1
Liam McNeeley 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
3 Julius Randle MIN
13%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Sion James CHA
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
18%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 25.2 6.3 4.9
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.4 6.4 8.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 18.2 6.9 2.9
4 Collin Sexton CHA 17.7 2.9 5.0
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.2 4.6 1.7
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 13.9 3.9 2.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.5 3.0 3.6
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.5 7.2 1.1
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 7.7 1.7
10 Naz Reid MIN 9.8 4.7 1.6
11 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.7 1.9 5.2
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.1 6.5 0.9
13 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.0 3.1 3.0
14 Tre Mann CHA 7.5 2.8 2.5
15 Leonard Miller MIN 7.1 3.3 1.2
16 Johnny Juzang MIN 7.0 2.8 0.6
17 Mike Conley MIN 6.4 2.3 3.1
18 Sion James CHA 6.1 2.5 1.1
19 Bones Hyland MIN 6.0 2.0 2.0
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.8 5.1 1.1
21 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.7 2.1 1.6
22 Joan Beringer MIN 5.1 4.1 0.5
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.2 1.6 0.8
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.3 1.4 0.5
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.5 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.