NBA games

SAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
135–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC36343827135
MIL47243131133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIL) / 9 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 39 31 4 2
DeMar DeRozan S 41 29 4 3
Domantas Sabonis S 37 24 13 6
Dennis Schroder S 37 24 5 7
Russell Westbrook 34 12 5 10
Drew Eubanks 11 10 1 1
Keon Ellis 16 3 1 1
Dylan Cardwell S 5 2 1 0
Nique Clifford 16 0 3 0
Maxime Raynaud 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 26 11 8
Kyle Kuzma 22 22 1 1
AJ Green S 30 17 4 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 17 0 2
Ryan Rollins S 36 16 4 8
Bobby Portis 23 16 6 2
Myles Turner S 24 9 3 0
Amir Coffey 15 4 3 2
Taurean Prince 13 3 3 0
Cole Anthony 13 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"AJ Green makes 6-foot two point shot (Ryan Rollins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
7 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 Russell Westbrook SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
8%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.2 12.1 6.7
2 Zach LaVine SAC 22.2 3.9 3.3
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.1 3.6 4.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.8 4.7 3.9
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.8 11.1 3.5
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.0 3.8 4.5
7 Russell Westbrook SAC 12.5 4.9 3.9
8 Nique Clifford SAC 12.2 4.2 3.7
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.0 2.3 2.4
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.4 5.2 1.9
11 Cole Anthony MIL 11.4 3.6 4.7
12 AJ Green MIL 10.7 3.1 1.5
13 Kyle Kuzma MIL 9.7 5.6 2.0
14 Bobby Portis MIL 8.0 4.6 1.1
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.2 1.8 1.0
16 Taurean Prince MIL 6.7 2.1 1.2
17 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.7 3.6 0.8
18 Dario Saric SAC 4.3 1.7 0.4
19 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.7 1.2
20 Isaac Jones SAC 3.6 1.6 0.6
21 Amir Coffey MIL 3.6 1.6 0.7
22 Maxime Raynaud SAC 3.4 2.7 0.7
23 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.0 3.5 0.3
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.0 0.7 0.3
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.9 1.3 1.2
26 Jericho Sims MIL 2.0 1.6 0.5
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.0 1.2 0.4
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.