NBA games

MIA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
101–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31271429101
SA33262820107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (SA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SA
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 31 10 3
Andrew Wiggins S 35 24 6 2
Simone Fontecchio 28 18 3 2
Davion Mitchell S 28 11 1 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 6 8 6
Dru Smith 20 6 2 5
Pelle Larsson S 26 5 3 3
Nikola Jovic 10 0 1 1
Kel'el Ware S 21 0 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 40 27 18 6
Stephon Castle S 35 21 6 8
Devin Vassell S 37 17 9 1
Dylan Harper 25 13 2 4
Keldon Johnson 23 11 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 31 10 2 2
Jordan McLaughlin 11 6 2 2
Julian Champagnie S 31 2 5 2
Bismack Biyombo 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Norman Powell MIA
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
19%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.3 12.6 4.1
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.7 5.5 5.8
3 Norman Powell MIA 18.5 4.1 3.1
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.5 7.1 2.5
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.4 4.3 3.2
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.4 8.9 1.2
7 Dylan Harper SA 14.1 4.0 4.7
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.0 4.2 3.4
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 4.9 1.3
10 Andrew Wiggins MIA 11.1 3.1 1.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.8 4.4 1.9
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.3 2.4 5.0
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.7 4.2 2.7
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.0 2.8 1.3
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.7 2.4 2.5
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 1.6 1.3
17 Jahmir Young MIA 5.5 1.2 1.6
18 Carter Bryant SA 5.3 2.2 1.0
19 Myron Gardner MIA 5.2 3.3 0.8
20 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.0 2.6 1.8
21 David Jones Garcia SA 5.0 2.3 1.8
22 Dru Smith MIA 4.9 1.6 1.8
23 Harrison Ingram SA 3.6 2.2 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.0 1.0
25 Riley Minix SA 2.7 1.3 1.1
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.