NBA games

WSH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
108–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH20293524108
OKC28313335127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 7 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home OKC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 24 19 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 16 8 4
Alex Sarr S 26 14 8 2
Kyshawn George S 31 12 7 6
Tre Johnson 27 10 3 2
Marvin Bagley III 16 8 3 2
Corey Kispert 20 8 6 2
Cam Whitmore 15 7 5 1
Khris Middleton S 20 6 1 2
Bub Carrington 22 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 31 3 7
Ajay Mitchell 30 20 1 2
Isaiah Joe 24 20 6 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 17 8 5
Cason Wallace S 27 12 5 3
Aaron Wiggins S 24 8 4 3
Jaylin Williams 22 7 9 4
Luguentz Dort S 26 7 6 1
Branden Carlson 4 3 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.7 5.6 6.0
2 Kyshawn George WSH 19.5 7.5 4.1
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.4 4.4 3.7
4 Alex Sarr WSH 18.8 9.7 3.5
5 CJ McCollum WSH 16.4 4.1 4.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.3 4.6 3.8
7 Khris Middleton WSH 12.8 5.9 2.9
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.4 9.0 2.5
9 Tre Johnson WSH 11.1 4.1 1.9
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.1 4.4 4.3
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 4.2 1.8
12 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 3.6 2.4
13 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.1 2.6 1.1
14 Chris Youngblood OKC 8.0 2.2 1.3
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.8 4.2 1.8
16 Alex Caruso OKC 7.8 2.1 1.9
17 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.6 5.4 1.5
18 Bub Carrington WSH 7.3 3.1 2.8
19 Corey Kispert WSH 7.0 2.9 1.6
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.3 2.2 1.2
21 Branden Carlson OKC 5.0 2.7 0.8
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.3 1.9 0.6
23 Will Riley WSH 4.0 1.2 0.7
24 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.6 2.8 0.4
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.7 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.