NBA games

GS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
110–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25332626110
MIL34262733120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 27 6 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 24 8 4
Jimmy Butler III S 37 23 10 3
Brandin Podziemski 26 9 5 3
Buddy Hield 17 8 1 0
Draymond Green S 33 7 4 6
Will Richard 12 7 0 1
Al Horford 20 3 2 2
Gui Santos 4 2 0 0
Moses Moody 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 36 32 3 8
Myles Turner S 29 17 7 3
Cole Anthony 21 16 3 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 13 2 3
Bobby Portis 19 12 5 2
AJ Green S 33 10 2 0
Kyle Kuzma S 36 10 8 4
Taurean Prince 18 10 0 1
Gary Harris 4 0 1 2
Amir Coffey 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
2 AJ Green MIL
12%
3 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
12%
4 Myles Turner MIL
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
9%
9 Quinten Post GS
9%
10 Moses Moody GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
25%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.3 4.5 5.0
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.1 4.6 4.3
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 14.3 3.7 3.6
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.1 6.1 3.6
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.3 3.9 3.4
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.3 2.2 2.1
7 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.0 1.5
8 AJ Green MIL 10.5 3.1 1.6
9 Cole Anthony MIL 10.2 3.3 4.6
10 Myles Turner MIL 9.8 5.2 1.8
11 Draymond Green GS 9.5 4.5 5.4
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.5 2.8 1.6
13 Kyle Kuzma MIL 8.4 5.3 1.6
14 Bobby Portis MIL 7.4 4.6 1.0
15 Will Richard GS 7.1 2.8 1.7
16 Quinten Post GS 7.0 3.7 1.2
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.6 2.0 1.2
18 Al Horford GS 6.5 3.5 1.5
19 Pat Spencer GS 5.9 2.2 1.6
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.3 0.7
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.2 1.1
22 Gui Santos GS 4.3 2.0 1.0
23 Amir Coffey MIL 3.5 1.5 0.7
24 Pete Nance MIL 3.5 1.6 0.7
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.5 0.9 0.8
26 Mark Sears MIL 2.3 0.8 0.4
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.2 0.4
28 Jericho Sims MIL 2.0 1.7 0.5
29 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.