NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
123–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL38332131123
CHA31272722107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (CHA) / 9 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 21 5 3
Paolo Banchero S 33 20 9 9
Anthony Black S 31 20 1 2
Tristan da Silva 22 19 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 18 8 3
Desmond Bane S 28 9 4 7
Goga Bitadze 13 6 3 0
Tyus Jones 14 5 0 0
Noah Penda 17 3 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 15 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 25 19 2 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 32 17 7 0
LaMelo Ball S 36 17 7 13
Miles Bridges S 33 16 5 0
Moussa Diabate 20 10 6 1
Tre Mann 16 9 2 0
Sion James S 28 8 4 1
Liam McNeeley 14 6 3 4
Kon Knueppel S 27 5 3 1
Pat Connaughton 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes two point shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
7 Collin Sexton CHA
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Anthony Black ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.6 6.0 7.5
2 Franz Wagner ORL 22.2 4.9 3.6
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.2 8.0 3.5
4 Miles Bridges CHA 18.7 7.3 3.1
5 Collin Sexton CHA 18.5 2.9 5.0
6 Desmond Bane ORL 16.4 4.4 3.0
7 Kon Knueppel CHA 14.7 3.9 2.7
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.6 7.3 2.1
9 Anthony Black ORL 11.7 3.2 3.0
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.1 6.9 1.1
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.3 3.0 1.5
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.3 6.2 0.9
13 Tre Mann CHA 7.6 2.9 2.6
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 5.4 1.3
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.3 6.0 1.3
16 Sion James CHA 5.9 2.2 1.2
17 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.8 2.0 1.4
18 Jase Richardson ORL 5.7 1.5 1.6
19 Jett Howard ORL 5.4 1.6 1.2
20 Noah Penda ORL 5.0 2.6 0.8
21 Tyus Jones ORL 4.7 1.5 1.8
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 2.9 0.6
23 Orlando Robinson ORL 3.3 2.0 0.7
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.7 1.0 0.4
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.7 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.