NBA games

MEM @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27223233114
PHX26272535113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (PHX) / 9 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHX
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 32 28 8 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 18 6 3
Cedric Coward 28 14 4 1
Santi Aldama 31 14 10 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 19 11 2 5
Jaylen Wells S 29 9 3 1
Cam Spencer 19 6 2 6
Jock Landale S 24 6 3 3
John Konchar 17 5 3 0
Javon Small 10 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 32 4 3
Mark Williams S 28 20 12 1
Royce O'Neale S 35 18 3 5
Grayson Allen S 36 14 3 4
Collin Gillespie 31 14 6 5
Ryan Dunn S 28 9 6 3
Nigel Hayes-Davis 14 4 0 2
Oso Ighodaro 12 2 4 2
Nick Richards 12 0 2 0
Isaiah Livers 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 3-foot layup (Royce O'Neale assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
4 Oso Ighodaro PHX
10%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
7 Jock Landale MEM
9%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
12%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.1 4.2 7.3
2 Ja Morant MEM 25.2 4.1 6.5
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.2 4.9 1.6
4 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.9 4.5
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.6 2.7 2.2
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 12.2 3.5 3.4
7 Cedric Coward MEM 12.1 4.0 2.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.6 4.9 3.7
9 Mark Williams PHX 11.6 10.2 1.0
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.0 4.0 4.6
11 Jock Landale MEM 9.8 5.5 1.2
12 Javon Small MEM 9.8 2.4 5.2
13 Santi Aldama MEM 9.6 6.5 1.8
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.9 2.4 1.8
15 Cam Spencer MEM 7.8 2.0 2.7
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.7 4.7 1.5
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.6 6.0 1.7
18 Nick Richards PHX 6.2 4.7 0.8
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.0 1.3 2.4
20 Isaiah Livers PHX 6.0 2.8 1.0
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 6.0 3.6 0.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.2 2.9 1.0
23 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.9 2.9 1.0
24 GG Jackson MEM 4.7 1.9 0.5
25 PJ Hall MEM 4.7 3.0 0.5
26 John Konchar MEM 4.4 3.6 0.8
27 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.8 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.