NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32303519116
MIN34242829115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 40 28 1 16
Jake LaRavia S 37 27 8 2
Rui Hachimura S 37 17 5 4
Deandre Ayton S 35 17 10 3
Dalton Knecht 36 15 1 1
Nick Smith Jr. 10 7 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt S 26 3 12 4
Jaxson Hayes 13 2 2 3
Bronny James 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 33 5 6
Jaden McDaniels S 41 30 7 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 14 4 6
Rudy Gobert S 38 9 6 2
Rob Dillingham 16 8 1 5
Mike Conley S 28 8 4 6
Bones Hyland 8 8 1 2
Naz Reid 22 5 5 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jake LaRavia · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
12%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
40%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 28.2 5.5 6.7
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.7 6.4 4.5
3 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.6 3.7 1.6
4 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.8 9.7 1.6
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.5 4.2 1.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.1 3.0 3.0
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.8 7.9 1.6
8 Naz Reid MIN 9.8 4.7 1.6
9 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.8 2.0 5.2
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.7 3.5 3.2
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.7 3.3 2.6
12 Marcus Smart LAL 8.1 1.8 1.8
13 Leonard Miller MIN 8.0 3.6 1.4
14 Johnny Juzang MIN 8.0 3.0 0.8
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.8 3.4 1.5
16 Bones Hyland MIN 6.6 2.2 2.0
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.3 4.7 1.6
18 Bronny James LAL 5.8 2.8 1.8
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.8 2.0 2.5
20 Joan Beringer MIN 5.8 4.5 0.7
21 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.6 1.9 1.3
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 5.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.