NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
136–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR33463819136
UTAH43302536134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (UTAH) / 8 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 35 27 5 8
Deni Avdija S 34 19 9 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 24 18 4 0
Jerami Grant 25 18 3 1
Toumani Camara S 31 17 4 5
Blake Wesley 20 10 2 3
Duop Reath 12 9 1 2
Caleb Love 8 5 1 4
Donovan Clingan S 28 5 7 4
Matisse Thybulle 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 38 32 5 2
Keyonte George S 32 29 2 8
Walker Kessler S 32 18 12 4
Jusuf Nurkic 16 13 4 4
Ace Bailey 15 8 3 2
Kyle Filipowski S 16 8 4 3
Svi Mykhailiuk S 23 7 2 1
Taylor Hendricks 15 5 4 0
Brice Sensabaugh 14 5 5 1
Cody Williams 12 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Svi Mykhailiuk · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
3 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
11%
5 Toumani Camara POR
10%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
44%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.5 6.3 3.7
2 Keyonte George UTAH 21.3 3.9 7.4
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.9 6.1 4.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.4 4.5 2.0
5 Walker Kessler UTAH 19.9 10.9 4.8
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.2 5.1 2.7
7 Jrue Holiday POR 18.8 4.8 6.8
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.2 3.4 1.7
9 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 11.2 3.9 4.2
10 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 4.4 2.8
11 Donovan Clingan POR 10.1 9.1 1.6
12 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.1 7.9 2.7
13 Caleb Love POR 9.9 2.7 1.6
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.9 4.7 1.6
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.5 2.5 2.2
16 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.0 3.4 1.5
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.2 3.7 2.0
18 Blake Wesley POR 6.7 3.3 3.4
19 Kris Murray POR 6.7 3.3 1.2
20 Kevin Love UTAH 6.3 2.9 1.0
21 Cody Williams UTAH 5.6 1.9 0.7
22 Yang Hansen POR 5.2 2.6 0.9
23 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.6 0.9
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.1 0.8 0.4
25 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.7 0.7
26 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.