NO @ DEN
NBA
Ball Arena
·Final
88–122
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 25 | 22 | 11 | 30 | 88 |
| DEN | 34 | 19 | 39 | 30 | 122 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DEN) / 7 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
DEN
31%
69%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears S | 30 | 21 | 1 | 6 |
| Zion Williamson S | 26 | 11 | 0 | 2 |
| Yves Missi | 24 | 10 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Poole | 22 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| Saddiq Bey | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 32 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones S | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Micah Peavy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Nikola Jokic ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Nikola Jokic
DEN
14%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
11%
3
Jamal Murray
DEN
11%
4
Jordan Poole
NO
10%
5
Trey Murphy III
NO
10%
6
Christian Braun
DEN
8%
7
Jeremiah Fears
NO
8%
8
Yves Missi
NO
7%
9
Cameron Johnson
DEN
7%
10
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
56%
Layup
22%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 24.6 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 21.4 | 11.5 | 8.2 |
| 3 | Aaron Gordon | DEN | 20.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 4 | Zion Williamson | NO | 20.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Jordan Poole | NO | 18.9 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 15.8 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 13.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| 8 | Christian Braun | DEN | 12.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| 9 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 11.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Herbert Jones | NO | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 11 | Derik Queen | NO | 9.6 | 5.0 | 0.9 |
| 12 | Peyton Watson | DEN | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 13 | Cameron Johnson | DEN | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 14 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 8.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 15 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | DEN | 8.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Yves Missi | NO | 8.2 | 7.1 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Jonas Valanciunas | DEN | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Bruce Brown | DEN | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 19 | Micah Peavy | NO | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 20 | Julian Strawther | DEN | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Jalen Pickett | DEN | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 22 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 23 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 24 | Hunter Tyson | DEN | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 25 | Bryce McGowens | NO | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 26 | Zeke Nnaji | DEN | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 27 | Spencer Jones | DEN | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.