NBA games

IND @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30251931105
DAL25272926107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DAL) / 7 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 27 13 3
Jarace Walker S 36 20 6 5
RayJ Dennis 30 17 5 5
Quenton Jackson 18 8 3 0
Mac McClung 13 7 2 1
Tony Bradley 13 6 8 1
Isaiah Jackson S 11 6 2 0
Jay Huff 21 5 2 2
Aaron Nesmith S 37 5 3 1
Ben Sheppard S 25 4 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams 22 20 7 2
Dwight Powell 29 18 6 0
Cooper Flagg S 35 15 10 4
D'Angelo Russell 20 14 2 5
Max Christie S 33 10 2 4
P.J. Washington S 29 9 11 2
Caleb Martin 13 6 1 1
Klay Thompson S 22 5 1 1
Anthony Davis S 7 4 4 0
Naji Marshall 22 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Klay Thompson DAL
11%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
6 Jay Huff IND
9%
7 Ben Sheppard IND
9%
8 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
9 Max Christie DAL
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 21.6 6.5 4.8
2 Anthony Davis DAL 19.2 9.8 2.7
3 P.J. Washington DAL 15.9 6.4 3.1
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 13.4 5.2 2.8
5 Jarace Walker IND 11.3 5.5 3.4
6 Ben Sheppard IND 10.2 4.8 2.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.1 3.7 1.5
8 Max Christie DAL 9.2 1.8 1.5
9 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 4.2 2.0
10 Naji Marshall DAL 8.8 3.3 2.0
11 D'Angelo Russell DAL 8.7 2.9 4.3
12 RayJ Dennis IND 8.4 2.3 3.3
13 Klay Thompson DAL 7.9 2.7 1.1
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.0 1.9 0.9
15 Quenton Jackson IND 6.1 2.0 1.7
16 Jay Huff IND 5.1 2.9 0.7
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 4.6 1.6 2.9
18 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 3.4 1.1
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 2.9 0.7
20 Tony Bradley IND 3.5 2.6 0.4
21 Caleb Martin DAL 2.8 1.6 0.7
22 Brandon Williams DAL 2.3 1.3 0.6
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.9 3.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.