NBA games

SAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33312722113
CHI36263925126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (CHI) / 8 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHI
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 30 3 3
DeMar DeRozan S 35 19 6 5
Domantas Sabonis S 32 18 11 6
Malik Monk 28 15 1 1
Russell Westbrook S 29 12 2 4
Keon Ellis 23 8 1 1
Dennis Schroder S 28 5 2 7
Drew Eubanks 16 5 3 0
Isaac Jones 2 1 0 0
Devin Carter 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 34 27 5 2
Josh Giddey S 31 20 8 12
Kevin Huerter 25 18 4 4
Nikola Vucevic S 33 13 14 7
Tre Jones S 30 11 1 5
Jalen Smith 15 10 5 0
Isaac Okoro S 29 9 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 21 9 2 1
Patrick Williams 20 9 3 0
Julian Phillips 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
16%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
5 Dennis Schroder SAC
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
9 Tre Jones CHI
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 22.9 3.8 3.2
2 Josh Giddey CHI 19.6 7.7 6.4
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.3 4.7 1.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.2 4.4 3.9
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.3 3.5 2.1
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.0 10.5 3.6
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.5 3.8 4.2
8 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.4 11.0 3.1
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.0 3.9 5.9
10 Russell Westbrook SAC 12.8 5.5 3.9
11 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 2.5 2.5
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.3 3.7 2.8
13 Patrick Williams CHI 10.0 3.7 2.9
14 Jevon Carter CHI 9.1 1.6 1.6
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.4 1.8 0.9
16 Isaac Okoro CHI 6.3 2.7 1.6
17 Jalen Smith CHI 6.3 4.0 1.1
18 Julian Phillips CHI 6.0 2.4 0.7
19 Dario Saric SAC 5.3 2.0 0.7
20 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.8 3.5 0.8
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.5 1.7 1.3
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.0 3.8 0.6
23 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.0 3.0 0.7
24 Isaac Jones SAC 3.9 1.8 0.7
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 2.3 1.7
26 Noa Essengue CHI 3.2 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.