NBA games

HOU @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
139–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU39313633139
TOR30332830121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 7 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home TOR
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 31 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 25 5 5
Alperen Sengun S 35 18 8 9
Amen Thompson S 40 18 9 7
Tari Eason 23 14 5 4
Steven Adams 20 12 12 2
Josh Okogie S 23 10 1 2
Reed Sheppard 18 7 5 1
Clint Capela 6 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 33 31 5 2
Brandon Ingram S 33 29 2 4
Immanuel Quickley S 31 15 3 7
Collin Murray-Boyles S 25 13 1 2
RJ Barrett S 33 10 2 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 10 1 2
Jamal Shead 19 6 2 4
Gradey Dick 20 4 3 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 16 2 2 3
Ochai Agbaji 7 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
18%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 23.6 5.9 2.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.6 8.1 7.7
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.2 5.7 3.8
4 RJ Barrett TOR 20.9 4.5 3.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.3 7.1 5.2
6 Amen Thompson HOU 18.7 5.5 4.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.8 5.0 1.5
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.8 3.3 6.0
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.1 4.2 3.9
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.3 4.8 2.0
11 Josh Okogie HOU 10.8 3.4 1.5
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.2 2.6 2.4
13 JD Davison HOU 8.9 2.6 2.7
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.9 2.7 1.0
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.6 4.1 2.1
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.6 2.9 1.6
17 Steven Adams HOU 7.5 8.6 1.6
18 Jamal Shead TOR 6.7 1.6 4.8
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.5 2.1 2.2
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.0 3.0 1.1
21 Jeff Green HOU 5.9 3.5 0.8
22 Clint Capela HOU 5.8 4.2 0.6
23 Jamison Battle TOR 4.8 1.4 0.7
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.9 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.