NBA games

ATL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
117–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34303023117
BKN27243229112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (BKN) / 8 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BKN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 29 23 7 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 32 18 3 3
Luke Kennard 28 17 1 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 14 6 7
Onyeka Okongwu 28 12 14 2
Mouhamed Gueye 14 9 4 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 28 8 3 0
Dyson Daniels S 35 7 4 6
Trae Young S 7 6 1 1
Keaton Wallace 14 3 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 32 9 2
Cam Thomas S 35 19 2 3
Nic Claxton S 29 18 11 1
Tyrese Martin 20 13 5 1
Terance Mann S 30 11 5 6
Noah Clowney 25 7 4 0
Jalen Wilson 21 6 2 2
Egor Demin 16 4 1 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 2 6 4
Ben Saraf S 12 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
12%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
4 Trae Young ATL
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
9%
8 Terance Mann BKN
8%
9 Ben Saraf BKN
7%
10 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 21.4 3.4 4.3
2 Trae Young ATL 20.2 3.3 8.7
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 20.1 6.0 3.4
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.8 6.6 3.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.0 5.9 2.4
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 17.3 3.2 3.4
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.6 6.6 1.9
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.8 3.5 1.6
9 Nic Claxton BKN 11.9 7.5 3.0
10 Egor Demin BKN 9.7 4.5 2.1
11 Terance Mann BKN 9.4 3.3 1.4
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.7 5.7 2.0
13 Dyson Daniels ATL 8.4 5.5 2.8
14 Danny Wolf BKN 7.7 2.8 3.6
15 Luke Kennard ATL 7.4 2.6 2.4
16 Ben Saraf BKN 7.2 2.3 4.6
17 Noah Clowney BKN 7.2 3.1 1.6
18 Asa Newell ATL 6.7 4.0 0.8
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.5 1.8 1.0
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.2 2.9 1.8
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.4 1.4
22 Nolan Traore BKN 5.7 1.6 1.9
23 Vit Krejci ATL 5.5 2.0 0.7
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.9 1.7 2.8
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.9 1.9 0.7
26 Drake Powell BKN 3.1 1.1 0.7
27 Tyson Etienne BKN 3.0 1.3 0.6
28 N'Faly Dante ATL 2.5 5.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.