NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL36282824116
DET29363634135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DET) / 8 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 24 11 7
Franz Wagner S 33 22 7 2
Tristan da Silva 21 15 3 0
Desmond Bane S 31 12 5 2
Goga Bitadze 27 10 6 2
Anthony Black 24 10 4 1
Jalen Suggs S 21 8 2 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 15 8 2 1
Noah Penda 12 4 2 0
Tyus Jones 9 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 30 6 10
Tobias Harris S 30 23 2 3
Jalen Duren S 33 21 13 2
Duncan Robinson S 29 15 5 2
Ausar Thompson S 29 12 11 6
Ronald Holland II 23 10 2 1
Isaiah Stewart 18 9 4 1
Javonte Green 17 9 2 1
Caris LeVert 16 4 1 2
Chaz Lanier 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
35%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 5.0 7.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 21.7 4.7 3.6
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 19.3 8.0 2.2
4 Desmond Bane ORL 16.8 4.4 2.9
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.5 4.5 4.1
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.5 5.8 2.7
7 Jalen Duren DET 12.9 8.2 1.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.7 8.2 2.0
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.4 6.2 2.8
10 Anthony Black ORL 11.5 3.2 2.9
11 Ronald Holland II DET 10.4 3.1 2.4
12 Duncan Robinson DET 9.2 2.8 1.5
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.9 1.6 3.3
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.7 2.9 1.4
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.0 4.9 1.1
16 Jase Richardson ORL 6.1 1.8 1.5
17 Paul Reed DET 6.1 5.0 1.1
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.8 5.8 1.1
19 Chaz Lanier DET 5.7 1.4 1.1
20 Caris LeVert DET 5.0 1.5 1.1
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.8 1.4 1.1
22 Javonte Green DET 4.8 2.3 0.8
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.7 2.6 0.7
24 Tyus Jones ORL 4.5 1.6 1.9
25 Bobi Klintman DET 4.4 2.5 1.0
26 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.3 2.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.