NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE42182520105
BOS40352327125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (BOS) / 8 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 34 19 11 4
Jaylon Tyson S 27 19 5 1
De'Andre Hunter S 30 18 6 2
Jarrett Allen S 25 16 6 1
Donovan Mitchell S 32 15 4 6
Craig Porter Jr. 22 7 2 4
Dean Wade 18 6 3 0
Lonzo Ball 24 3 3 5
Tyrese Proctor 9 2 0 0
Thomas Bryant 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 30 5 4
Sam Hauser 21 21 3 1
Derrick White S 35 19 5 4
Anfernee Simons 26 14 0 2
Josh Minott S 33 11 15 2
Payton Pritchard S 32 10 3 10
Neemias Queta S 26 10 13 3
Luka Garza 16 10 5 2
Baylor Scheierman 10 0 3 1
Jordan Walsh 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 10-foot two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
9 Hugo Gonzalez BOS
8%
10 Josh Minott BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
37%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 3.7 4.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.2 5.1 3.7
3 Derrick White BOS 20.4 5.2 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.6 8.0 4.3
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.7 5.2 5.1
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 16.7 3.5 2.4
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 16.0 4.3 2.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.8 7.1 1.7
9 Sam Hauser BOS 11.2 2.8 1.4
10 Josh Minott BOS 9.8 5.1 1.4
11 Neemias Queta BOS 7.9 8.5 1.1
12 Luka Garza BOS 7.5 4.3 0.9
13 Dean Wade CLE 7.3 3.7 1.4
14 Jaylon Tyson CLE 7.1 3.1 1.8
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 3.4 2.0
16 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 6.3 4.2 1.5
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 6.3 1.6 1.9
18 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.1 3.1 4.4
19 Chris Boucher BOS 6.0 4.7 0.7
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.6 3.7 1.3
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.5 2.9 1.0
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.9 2.1 0.9
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.9 3.4 1.5
24 Luke Travers CLE 4.3 2.1 0.9
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.