NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
79–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2524141679
GS3313322098

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (GS) / 7 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 32 20 4 1
Kawhi Leonard S 31 18 6 1
Ivica Zubac S 24 14 12 1
John Collins 23 5 7 0
Kris Dunn 26 5 4 0
Cam Christie 6 4 0 0
Brook Lopez 19 3 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 3 2 1
Nicolas Batum 20 3 6 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 32 21 5 5
Stephen Curry S 26 19 2 8
Brandin Podziemski 27 12 5 4
Quinten Post S 25 12 8 0
Moses Moody 22 9 3 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 26 9 5 1
Draymond Green S 31 7 7 4
Will Richard 6 5 0 0
Al Horford 21 2 4 0
Buddy Hield 10 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.0 4.3 4.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20.9 4.5 3.2
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.0 4.1 4.2
4 James Harden LAC 17.3 4.5 8.6
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.4 6.1 4.1
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.9 7.5 3.0
7 John Collins LAC 12.8 5.2 1.5
8 Moses Moody GS 11.4 2.7 1.3
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.3 3.6 3.3
10 Draymond Green GS 9.3 4.0 5.4
11 Buddy Hield GS 8.8 2.7 1.8
12 Brook Lopez LAC 8.7 3.7 1.0
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.4 2.2 1.1
14 Will Richard GS 7.1 2.9 1.8
15 Chris Paul LAC 6.5 2.4 4.7
16 Quinten Post GS 6.5 3.0 1.2
17 Pat Spencer GS 6.3 2.2 1.9
18 Kris Dunn LAC 5.9 2.3 1.6
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.9 4.4 1.2
20 Al Horford GS 5.6 2.9 1.4
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.1 0.7
22 Gui Santos GS 4.3 1.9 1.1
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.0 3.6 0.6
24 Cam Christie LAC 4.0 1.2 0.7
25 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 3.9 1.8 1.6
26 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.4 0.8
27 Kobe Brown LAC 3.0 2.9 0.7
28 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 2.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.