NBA games

SAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29332118101
OKC24342227107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 7 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home OKC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 23 4 3
DeMar DeRozan S 33 19 1 3
Russell Westbrook S 30 16 9 4
Keon Ellis 27 12 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 35 10 18 3
Malik Monk 26 9 2 4
Dennis Schroder S 32 8 5 3
Devin Carter 9 4 1 1
Drew Eubanks 13 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 31 9 4
Ajay Mitchell 24 18 0 1
Aaron Wiggins S 34 18 6 6
Luguentz Dort S 35 13 5 1
Alex Caruso 24 8 2 3
Cason Wallace S 27 8 1 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 4 14 3
Jaylin Williams 17 3 5 4
Branden Carlson 4 2 1 0
Brooks Barnhizer 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Aaron Wiggins makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Cason Wallace OKC
10%
6 Dennis Schroder SAC
10%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.2 5.0 6.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 20.6 3.8 3.1
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.3 4.6 3.6
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 14.7 4.9 3.8
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.3 11.2 2.9
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.3 4.0 4.1
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.5 4.2 3.2
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.4 2.4 2.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.1 8.0 2.1
10 Russell Westbrook SAC 10.5 4.5 3.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.8 4.7 4.3
12 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 3.8 2.4
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.3 4.0 1.7
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.1 4.0 1.5
15 Chris Youngblood OKC 7.9 2.2 1.2
16 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 6.6 4.2 1.3
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 1.4 1.2
18 Keon Ellis SAC 6.1 1.8 1.0
19 Dario Saric SAC 5.1 2.2 0.6
20 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.9 3.7 0.7
21 Branden Carlson OKC 4.7 2.8 0.6
22 Devin Carter SAC 4.5 1.9 1.3
23 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.0 4.1 0.5
24 Maxime Raynaud SAC 3.8 3.0 0.7
25 Isaac Jones SAC 3.8 2.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.