NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26452020111
MIL27323527121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MIL) / 8 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 36 4 3
Mikal Bridges S 39 24 11 6
Landry Shamet S 30 16 3 1
Jordan Clarkson 17 10 1 1
OG Anunoby S 34 9 6 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 8 12 1
Tyler Kolek 11 5 1 2
Josh Hart 26 3 4 4
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 37 8 7
Ryan Rollins S 26 25 2 4
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 11 3 3
Bobby Portis 16 9 2 0
AJ Green S 24 9 4 0
Taurean Prince 21 8 0 0
Amir Coffey 15 8 2 0
Myles Turner S 30 5 8 3
Kyle Kuzma 20 5 5 1
Cole Anthony 24 4 4 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
6 AJ Green MIL
7%
7 Myles Turner MIL
7%
8 OG Anunoby NY
7%
9 Mohamed Diawara NY
7%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
10%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.6 11.9 6.1
2 Jalen Brunson NY 23.9 4.1 4.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 15.6 10.2 2.3
4 Mikal Bridges NY 15.3 5.0 2.9
5 OG Anunoby NY 13.9 5.8 2.0
6 Ryan Rollins MIL 12.3 3.4 3.2
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.5 2.1 1.9
8 Cole Anthony MIL 10.4 3.0 4.3
9 Myles Turner MIL 10.1 4.7 1.6
10 AJ Green MIL 9.9 2.9 1.6
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.3 2.2 1.5
12 Kyle Kuzma MIL 7.8 5.0 1.4
13 Bobby Portis MIL 6.7 4.8 1.0
14 Tyler Kolek NY 6.5 1.8 1.9
15 Josh Hart NY 5.7 6.5 2.6
16 Taurean Prince MIL 5.6 2.0 1.2
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.1 1.4 0.9
18 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.0 4.1 0.8
19 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.9 1.6 1.0
20 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.7 2.0 0.6
21 Trey Jemison III NY 3.4 3.0 0.5
22 Amir Coffey MIL 3.0 1.3 0.6
23 Jericho Sims MIL 2.6 1.8 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.5 0.6
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.5 2.1 0.5
26 Gary Harris MIL 2.3 0.8 0.8
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.