NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
117–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA34262829117
MIA37392939144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIA) / 8 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 28 20 8 9
Kon Knueppel S 27 19 3 4
Collin Sexton S 27 18 5 6
Miles Bridges S 31 17 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 31 10 6 0
Tre Mann 27 8 3 5
Sion James 23 8 3 0
Moussa Diabate 19 8 2 0
Liam McNeeley 11 6 1 0
Tidjane Salaun 15 3 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 28 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 30 26 6 2
Andrew Wiggins S 30 21 2 2
Pelle Larsson S 31 17 5 3
Kel'el Ware S 27 14 9 1
Simone Fontecchio 19 10 0 3
Nikola Jovic 22 10 6 2
Davion Mitchell S 30 8 4 9
Dru Smith 16 5 0 5
Myron Gardner 3 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
8 Collin Sexton CHA
9%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
24%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.1 5.9 7.4
2 Norman Powell MIA 20.4 4.3 3.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 19.6 7.9 3.3
4 Collin Sexton CHA 18.7 3.0 5.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.4 7.4 3.0
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 15.9 9.7 1.5
7 Kon Knueppel CHA 14.2 4.1 2.5
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.6 4.4 3.7
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 10.8 3.1 2.1
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.3 7.1 1.0
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.8 4.2 3.4
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.7 7.3 1.1
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.6 2.5 4.8
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.4 3.2 1.5
15 Jahmir Young MIA 7.4 1.7 2.1
16 Tre Mann CHA 7.1 2.8 2.3
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.7 5.6 1.3
18 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.9 2.2 1.7
19 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.9 3.3 2.4
20 Sion James CHA 5.7 2.4 1.2
21 Dru Smith MIA 5.6 2.0 1.8
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 1.5 1.4
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.9 3.2 0.7
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.7 1.5 0.6
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.7 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.