NBA games

PHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
139–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI3236263213139
WSH403238168134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (WSH) / 7 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home WSH
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 47 39 3 10
Joel Embiid S 23 25 7 5
Quentin Grimes 39 23 7 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 44 17 11 1
VJ Edgecombe S 40 14 6 4
Jabari Walker 6 8 2 0
Andre Drummond 12 6 10 0
Justin Edwards S 14 3 0 0
Adem Bona 18 2 5 0
Trendon Watford 18 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 34 31 11 5
Kyshawn George S 40 20 9 7
Marvin Bagley III 19 14 7 3
CJ McCollum S 40 14 1 7
Khris Middleton S 31 13 10 3
Corey Kispert 25 13 5 1
Tre Johnson 26 10 2 2
Bub Carrington S 38 10 5 5
Cam Whitmore 13 9 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
8 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
9 Jabari Walker PHI
8%
10 Adem Bona PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
18%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.2 4.0 6.3
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI 23.8 5.1 5.3
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 21.5 4.1 4.8
4 Kyshawn George WSH 20.6 7.4 3.6
5 CJ McCollum WSH 17.1 4.5 3.7
6 Alex Sarr WSH 15.4 8.9 3.1
7 Joel Embiid PHI 14.2 5.1 5.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.8 5.0 2.4
9 Khris Middleton WSH 13.2 4.9 3.0
10 Tre Johnson WSH 12.1 4.3 2.1
11 Cam Whitmore WSH 9.1 3.0 1.3
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.8 4.7 1.3
13 Corey Kispert WSH 7.0 2.8 1.7
14 Bub Carrington WSH 6.9 2.6 2.6
15 Jabari Walker PHI 6.7 4.2 1.0
16 Justin Edwards PHI 6.3 3.2 1.8
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 5.7 0.9
18 Hunter Sallis PHI 5.8 2.3 1.2
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.7 2.3 0.9
20 Will Riley WSH 5.4 1.6 1.0
21 Adem Bona PHI 5.0 3.8 0.7
22 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.8 3.2 0.7
23 Johni Broome PHI 4.7 2.8 0.5
24 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.3 2.4 0.4
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.