NBA games

POR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28293233122
LAL24272631108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (LAL) / 7 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 32 25 4 4
Jrue Holiday S 30 24 5 6
Jerami Grant 28 22 3 3
Donovan Clingan S 26 16 14 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 16 7 2
Caleb Love 11 5 4 1
Toumani Camara S 30 4 4 3
Blake Wesley 16 4 1 3
Duop Reath 1 3 0 0
Kris Murray 24 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 39 41 4 5
Rui Hachimura S 36 16 6 1
Deandre Ayton S 36 16 8 2
Dalton Knecht 25 16 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt S 28 14 8 3
Jake LaRavia S 29 3 6 5
Nick Smith Jr. 20 2 3 3
Bronny James 20 0 3 3
Chris Manon 4 0 1 0
Christian Koloko 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
14%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
14%
3 Jrue Holiday POR
13%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
5 Deni Avdija POR
12%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
7 Toumani Camara POR
10%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
9 Caleb Love POR
0%
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 27.3 5.7 6.8
2 Deni Avdija POR 20.6 6.2 3.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 19.8 4.3 1.7
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.5 4.5 2.5
5 Jrue Holiday POR 16.8 4.7 6.6
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.0 3.6 1.8
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.1 10.1 1.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 11.1 4.5 2.8
9 Caleb Love POR 10.8 2.3 1.7
10 Donovan Clingan POR 8.8 8.1 1.5
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.7 3.2 2.7
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.3 3.5 1.6
13 Kris Murray POR 7.2 3.0 1.2
14 Blake Wesley POR 6.6 3.2 3.2
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.0 4.5 1.6
16 Bronny James LAL 5.8 2.6 1.6
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 5.7 1.1
18 Yang Hansen POR 5.7 2.8 0.9
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 1.7 0.9
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.5 1.2 0.8
21 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.4 1.5 2.1
22 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.7 0.6
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.1 2.4 0.7
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.9 3.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.