NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM37242433118
GS36293630131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (GS) / 8 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 31 23 3 9
Jock Landale S 24 17 6 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 16 7 0
Santi Aldama 22 14 6 4
Cam Spencer 14 11 2 3
Jaylen Wells S 28 10 1 2
Cedric Coward 25 9 4 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 7 2 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 1 4 0 0
Javon Small 16 4 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 32 25 10 4
Brandin Podziemski S 32 23 4 6
Jimmy Butler III S 31 20 5 5
Moses Moody 22 20 2 1
Stephen Curry S 30 16 4 3
Draymond Green S 28 7 4 10
Buddy Hield 18 5 2 2
Gary Payton II 10 4 0 1
Will Richard 9 4 2 1
Gui Santos 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Ja Morant MEM
13%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Jock Landale MEM
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
16%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.6 4.8 4.8
2 Ja Morant MEM 25.0 4.0 6.3
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.2 4.4 4.1
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.6 4.8 1.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 13.1 5.7 4.3
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.8 2.8 2.3
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 12.8 3.8 3.6
8 Cedric Coward MEM 12.5 4.0 2.1
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.8 3.8 3.2
10 Javon Small MEM 10.5 2.3 5.7
11 Moses Moody GS 9.9 2.8 1.4
12 Draymond Green GS 9.8 3.9 5.4
13 Buddy Hield GS 9.6 2.8 2.1
14 Santi Aldama MEM 9.5 6.5 1.6
15 Jock Landale MEM 9.3 5.5 1.1
16 Will Richard GS 8.1 3.1 2.1
17 Cam Spencer MEM 7.7 2.1 2.9
18 Pat Spencer GS 7.7 2.7 2.5
19 Quinten Post GS 7.0 3.0 1.3
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.8 5.7 1.5
21 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 2.1 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.7 3.5 1.2
23 GG Jackson MEM 5.7 2.4 0.8
24 PJ Hall MEM 5.2 3.5 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 4.9 2.2 1.4
26 John Konchar MEM 4.4 3.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.