NBA games

PHX @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
134138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX2734253810134
UTAH3925303014138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (UTAH) / 7 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home UTAH
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 44 34 5 10
Mark Williams 31 25 11 0
Grayson Allen S 42 23 2 5
Royce O'Neale S 46 17 13 7
Collin Gillespie 32 15 3 13
Ryan Dunn S 17 7 2 1
Nick Richards 15 6 10 0
Isaiah Livers 21 5 1 0
Oso Ighodaro S 13 2 1 1
Nigel Hayes-Davis 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 45 51 14 3
Keyonte George S 43 26 5 10
Walker Kessler S 35 25 11 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 37 11 3 3
Jusuf Nurkic 18 7 13 2
Ace Bailey 14 6 1 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 23 6 3 2
Brice Sensabaugh 12 3 2 1
Kyle Filipowski S 20 3 6 1
Taylor Hendricks 19 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Walker Kessler UTAH
15%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
14%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
11%
6 Ryan Dunn PHX
10%
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
69%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
8%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.3 3.7 7.5
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.0 4.6 3.6
3 Keyonte George UTAH 18.5 3.6 6.5
4 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 16.8 3.6 1.8
5 Walker Kessler UTAH 16.3 10.0 4.6
6 Grayson Allen PHX 14.5 3.6 4.1
7 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 11.5 4.0 4.4
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 11.4 4.8 1.7
9 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.0 7.1 2.6
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.9 3.9 1.5
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.3 3.8 2.6
12 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.3 3.8 2.9
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.9 5.0 1.7
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.3 2.5 1.9
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.3 2.3 1.9
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.9 3.6 2.1
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.4 6.5 1.7
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 6.5 3.8 1.0
19 Kevin Love UTAH 6.1 2.8 1.0
20 Nick Richards PHX 5.8 3.8 0.8
21 Cody Williams UTAH 5.8 1.8 0.6
22 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 5.1 3.1 1.0
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.4 2.1 0.7
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.