NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
101–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28203914101
DAL2418272594

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (DAL) / 9 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 23 4 8
Chet Holmgren S 32 18 11 2
Ajay Mitchell 27 17 7 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 16 12 0
Aaron Wiggins 27 11 3 3
Luguentz Dort S 32 6 5 1
Jaylin Williams 17 4 7 1
Cason Wallace S 33 4 5 5
Brooks Barnhizer 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 26 11 3
P.J. Washington S 38 15 9 3
Max Christie S 31 14 2 0
Jaden Hardy 21 11 1 1
Naji Marshall 23 9 4 0
D'Angelo Russell 30 9 2 10
Klay Thompson S 22 8 4 2
Cooper Flagg S 31 2 2 0
Caleb Martin 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
17%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.5 5.0 5.7
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.2 9.0 2.6
3 Anthony Davis DAL 20.1 10.0 2.5
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.3 4.1 4.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.3 6.1 3.2
6 Cooper Flagg DAL 14.7 5.8 3.2
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.1 4.4 3.1
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.6 7.5 2.4
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.1 4.6 4.0
10 Naji Marshall DAL 8.9 3.5 2.2
11 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 3.9 2.3
12 D'Angelo Russell DAL 8.5 2.9 3.6
13 Max Christie DAL 8.3 1.7 1.7
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.2 3.7 1.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.2 3.6 1.4
16 Chris Youngblood OKC 8.0 2.4 1.2
17 Klay Thompson DAL 8.0 2.4 1.0
18 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 6.9 4.6 1.3
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.2 2.0 0.9
20 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.1 2.0 3.0
21 Miles Kelly DAL 4.8 1.6 1.4
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.2 3.6 1.2
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.0 3.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.