NBA games

TOR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
103–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR29212825103
SA41282626121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (SA) / 9 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SA
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 32 25 2 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 24 19 3 1
Immanuel Quickley S 32 15 3 7
Brandon Ingram S 32 14 3 5
Scottie Barnes S 30 8 3 2
Jamal Shead 16 6 2 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 5 0 2
Ochai Agbaji 12 4 1 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 10 3 1 1
Jonathan Mogbo 3 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 24 15 4
Stephon Castle S 31 22 5 4
Harrison Barnes S 32 18 0 5
Devin Vassell S 30 15 3 5
Dylan Harper 27 11 6 6
Keldon Johnson 24 10 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 23 9 9 1
Jordan McLaughlin 10 5 0 2
Carter Bryant 11 3 0 0
David Jones Garcia 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes driving layup (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.7 12.6 4.1
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.3 5.8 3.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.3 7.3 5.2
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.2 5.5 6.3
5 RJ Barrett TOR 18.9 4.4 3.4
6 Devin Vassell SA 16.0 4.4 2.9
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.1 3.3 5.5
8 Dylan Harper SA 14.6 4.0 4.8
9 Keldon Johnson SA 13.2 5.1 1.5
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 4.0 1.9
11 Gradey Dick TOR 9.4 2.8 1.0
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.0 6.5 1.8
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.2 4.3 1.9
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.3 2.7 2.1
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.3 4.3
16 Carter Bryant SA 5.8 2.5 1.2
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.6 2.8 0.7
18 David Jones Garcia SA 5.4 2.4 2.1
19 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.2 2.7 1.4
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.1 1.5 1.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 1.3 0.6
22 Harrison Ingram SA 3.6 2.3 0.7
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.5 2.3 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.3 1.0
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.9 2.7 0.5
26 Riley Minix SA 2.6 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.