NBA games

BOS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
122–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34312235122
NO2628241290

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (NO) / 7 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NO
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons 32 25 6 1
Payton Pritchard S 31 18 3 8
Luka Garza 19 16 6 1
Josh Minott S 28 15 9 1
Jaylen Brown S 24 15 7 4
Derrick White S 31 11 3 7
Sam Hauser 26 9 3 2
Neemias Queta S 22 6 11 0
Xavier Tillman 7 4 0 1
Baylor Scheierman 14 3 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 22 2 4
Derik Queen 22 12 3 0
Saddiq Bey 24 11 2 0
Yves Missi S 19 11 7 3
Herbert Jones S 23 11 2 0
DeAndre Jordan 11 7 5 0
Trey Murphy III S 34 7 5 5
Jose Alvarado 22 5 3 2
Micah Peavy 3 2 2 0
Jeremiah Fears S 27 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Minott · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Josh Minott makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
14%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
4 Jordan Poole NO
11%
5 Herbert Jones NO
10%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
7 Yves Missi NO
9%
8 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
9 Hugo Gonzalez BOS
8%
10 Saddiq Bey NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
5%
Layup
61%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.2 4.7 3.4
2 Derrick White BOS 21.7 5.1 5.1
3 Trey Murphy III NO 17.7 5.9 2.7
4 Jordan Poole NO 17.3 3.0 3.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.7 5.4 4.6
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.7 3.0 2.4
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.7 4.3 2.9
8 Saddiq Bey NO 11.2 4.3 2.1
9 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 2.7 1.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 9.7 4.7 2.0
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.6 2.4 1.3
12 Josh Minott BOS 9.1 4.6 1.3
13 Neemias Queta BOS 8.2 7.6 1.2
14 Yves Missi NO 7.3 7.6 1.0
15 Chris Boucher BOS 6.4 4.7 0.6
16 Luka Garza BOS 5.8 4.3 0.7
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.6 3.0 1.0
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.1 4.0 1.2
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.1 3.1 1.7
20 Micah Peavy NO 5.0 2.2 1.2
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.3 2.8 1.0
22 Jose Alvarado NO 4.2 1.6 1.6
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.2 0.9 0.6
24 Bryce McGowens NO 2.9 0.9 0.4
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.