NBA games

BKN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
109–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25351732109
HOU42293234137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (HOU) / 7 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home HOU
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terance Mann S 23 21 6 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 28 18 4 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 22 17 12 2
Tyrese Martin 23 11 4 2
Cam Thomas S 25 9 1 2
Jalen Wilson 23 9 1 2
E.J. Liddell 5 6 2 0
Ben Saraf S 25 6 1 5
Nic Claxton S 23 6 3 3
Nolan Traore 21 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason 26 22 5 5
Alperen Sengun S 30 21 6 6
Kevin Durant S 25 19 6 3
Reed Sheppard 24 15 4 8
Amen Thompson S 25 12 4 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 11 4 0
Josh Okogie S 31 10 0 1
Clint Capela 14 8 1 0
Aaron Holiday 7 5 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 7 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Terance Mann makes driving floating jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
6 Aaron Holiday HOU
7%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Steven Adams HOU
7%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 23.9 5.2 2.6
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.9 3.1 4.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.5 7.8 8.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 20.4 5.9 3.6
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.6 5.1 4.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 4.9 1.5
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.3 3.9 3.3
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.5 7.8 3.0
9 Josh Okogie HOU 10.1 3.5 1.4
10 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.7 2.5 2.9
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.4 3.9 1.7
12 JD Davison HOU 8.4 2.3 3.0
13 Steven Adams HOU 8.3 8.4 1.7
14 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 2.7 1.4
15 Noah Clowney BKN 7.7 3.1 1.5
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.2 4.3 1.8
17 Ben Saraf BKN 6.7 2.2 4.5
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.9 1.6 0.8
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.7 2.7 1.7
20 Jeff Green HOU 5.3 3.2 0.8
21 Clint Capela HOU 5.1 4.0 0.7
22 Nolan Traore BKN 4.5 1.1 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.